Will There Be Food Shortages in the Coming Year?

According to the USDA: "There are currently no nationwide shortages of food, although in some cases the inventory of certain foods at your grocery store might be temporarily low before stores can restock. Food production and manufacturing are widely dispersed throughout the U.S. and there are currently no wide-spread disruptions reported in the supply chain."

In 2021, food-at-home prices are expected to increase between 2.5 and 3.5 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are expected to increase between 3.5 and 4.5 percent. In 2022, food-at-home prices are expected to increase between 1.5 and 2.5 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are expected to increase between 3.0 and 4.0 percent.


Drug Shortages

Drug Shortages can occur for many reasons, including manufacturing and quality problems, delays, and discontinuations. Manufacturers provide FDA most drug shortage information, and the agency works closely with them to prevent or reduce the impact of shortages.

The FDA database of drugs in shortage can be seen here.

Media reports, and of course social media, are stressing the likelihood of food shortages in the coming year, but is this a real probability or just media hype?

"Meat and poultry products will still be tight supplies this fall, not necessarily because of a shortage of livestock or poultry but because processing plants are working at less than full capacity," Rodney Holcomb, food economist at Oklahoma State University told TODAY Food in an email. "Expect higher meat prices to extend into 2022. This could impact turkey and ham prices for the holiday season." Holcomb also said that we can expect to see a shortage of canned foods, but that this has to do more with the container than the actual food.

Jayson L. Lusk, a distinguished professor and head of the department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University said that while there were some strong price increases in wholesale beef and pork prices earlier this summer, for the past month, wholesale prices of both these products have been trending downward, indicating less fear of shortages.

According to Business Insider "Since the onset of the pandemic, a boom in demand has overwhelmed the supply chain. Transportation has struggled to keep up as rising demand met COVID-19 shutdowns, labor shortages, and historic weather occurrences, causing a lack of shipping containers and supplies, alongside major price hikes."

At Cascadia Preparedness we do not foresee a nationwide food shortage in 2022, where there is no food available for purchase.What we do expect is what was stated by the USDA  "inventory of certain foods at your grocery store might be temporarily low before stores can restock." Your favorite brands may not be immediately available, but there will be sufficient food products available for purchase to prepare regular meals throughout the year.

Having a well-stocked refrigerator, freezer, and pantry is a good idea in the best of times. But in cases of emergency, whether it be illness, storms, or just hard times, a full cupboard can help keep your family well fed and safe in the event of a more severe disruption of the food supply chain.

First and foremost, it's important to make a distinction between panic shopping and being prepared. Yes, you should have enough food and supplies (including medications) on hand to last two weeks in case of a major disaster. No, you do not need to be hoarding toilet paper and other essentials.

What you buy is just as important as how much of it you buy. While it is tempting to load your pantry full of guilty pleasure treats like Spaghetti-Os and marshmallow fluff, (and if those foods bring you a certain amount of emotional comfort in an uncertain world, feel free to indulge responsibly), but try to focus on a certain basic amount of nutritional value in your choices. A healthier you means a healthier immune system.

The main thing is to have plenty of canned and frozen fruit and veggies to get your vitamin C, plus canned beans and fish for protein and zinc. Cereal, popcorn, rolled oats and other whole grains are important too. Be prepared, not panicked!